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The
3rd Annual Shaking Through Grover Awards
Other Grover Awards:
2006
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2005 |
2004
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2003 | 2002
Read
our post-Oscar reaction to the night's
festivities.
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Posted: February 1,
2004
By
Laurence Station
After imploding with our picks last year
(an abysmal 45% correctly pegged), we've decided to stop leaning toward
hopeful wishes and think more along the lines of a Hollywood insider.
Thus, we examine the "It's about time" factor, or the "Nice work, but
perhaps next time" mentality that drives this highly entertaining
popularity contest. We're confident we've improved our completely
unscientific methodology to the point that -- dare we predict our final
prediction rate? -- yes, we shall hit the fabled 70% mark this time out.
Besides, this definitely looks like the year of Lord of the Rings.
A good thing, too, as it's been a bridesmaid in the Best Picture
sweepstakes two years running now. Again, the "It's about time" factor
would seem to apply here.
As for our humble, un-televised Grover awards, well, let's just say
Lord has been a runaway winner for all three years of its
existence. Enjoy our picks, and we'll see you back here the morning
after the big event with our Post-Oscar reaction.
Listed below are the Oscar nominees with our favored pick (who
should win) in bold text alongside the accompanying image. The
actual Oscar prediction (who will win) follows. Official winners
are highlighted in red. |
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Best Picture |
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Best
Director |
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Who Will Win:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
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Who Will Win: Peter Jackson,
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
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Why: This One Ring finally rules
them all. After three straight nominations, Peter Jackson's classic film
epic finally gets its due. If there is an upset, look for Seabiscuit
to overtake Lord's War Admiral and win by a nose at the finish
line. |
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Why: Not even nominated last year
for Two Towers, Jackson finally gets rewarded for his masterful
work on the entire trilogy. |
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Best
Actor |
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Best
Actress |
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Who Will Win: Sean Penn,
Mystic River |
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Who Will Win: Charlize Theron,
Monster |
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Why: Great list to choose from, but
the often-nominated, never chosen Penn made the most of his way
over-the-top character, and should be rewarded with Oscar gold for his
melodramatic pain. Depp in an upset would be fun, though. |
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Why: Watts is a close second, but
Theron's performance is truly remarkable and will be duly rewarded. |
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Best
Supporting Actor |
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Best
Supporting Actress |
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Who Will Win: Tim Robbins,
Mystic River |
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Who Will Win: Renée Zellweger,
Cold Mountain |
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Why: No other real competition.
Baldwin, despite playing a one-note character, might pull an upset, but
don't count on it. |
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Why: Third time's the charm for
Zellweger. Despite playing a lame caricature, she might be the one true
lock amongst this year's nominees. |
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Best
Screenplay (Original) |
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Best
Screenplay (Adaptation) |
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Who Will Win: Sofia Coppola,
Lost in Translation |
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Who Will Win: Brian Helgeland,
Mystic River |
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Why: The Academy won't let
Coppola's little indie film that could go home empty-handed. Unless, of
course, the far-less impressive In America pulls an upset. |
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Why: Helgeland knows how to craft
Oscar-worthy scripts. He won for 1997's L.A. Confidential, and
did a commendable job with Dennis Lehane's fundamentally flawed crime
opus. |
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Cinematography |
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Film
Editing |
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Who Will Win: Russell Boyd,
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World |
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Who Will Win: Lee Smith,
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World |
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Why: Seabiscuit has the
impressive race sequences, but Master's the more impressively
photographed work. |
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Why: Smith's expert cuts kept the
tension at a high level throughout. Rezende's edgy, quick-cut work on
City of God could surprise. |
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Visual
Effects |
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Art
Direction |
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Who Will Win: Jim Rygiel, Joe
Letteri, Randall William Cook and Alex Funke,
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
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Who Will Win: Ben Van Os and Cecile
Heideman,
Girl with a
Pearl Earring |
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Why: Pirates' visuals
were impressive but too cartoony (though very appropriate to the source
material). Master was stuck with a high-seas backdrop throughout.
Rings' amazing visuals own this one. |
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Why: Girl is an art house
film about an artist, and the look of the picture is simply gorgeous.
Rings is too muscular for its own good to pull this one off, but
don't entirely count it out. |
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Costume Design |
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Makeup |
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Who Will Win: Dien van Straalen,
Girl with a
Pearl Earring |
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Who Will Win: Richard Taylor and
Peter King,
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
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Why: Girl has far less
distracting action than its four competitors. Thus, it's easier to
appreciate the handsomely threaded period dress on display. |
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Why: Pirates might nab this
category, but it's Lord's night. Toss this one in with the rest
of the haul. Besides, all that highly detailed orc makeup has to count
for something. |
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Sound |
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Sound
Editing |
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Who Will Win: Christopher Boyes,
Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek,
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
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Who Will Win: Richard King,
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World |
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Why: All five are deserving. This
is a tough one to call, but Lord has the overall momentum so it
gets the nod. |
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Why: Nemo might sneak off
with this one, but without Lord to worry about, Master
snags another technical achievement. |
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Original Song |
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Original Score |
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Who Will Win: "Into the West" from
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
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Who Will Win: Howard Shore,
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
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Why: Don't count out Sting, but
this emotional tune from Lord has Oscar gold written all over it. |
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Why: Criminally overlooked last
year, Shore takes his second statuette in three years with his
concluding Lord score. Like the film, Shore's score is the most
emotionally resonant and appropriately epic of the three. |
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Best
Animated Feature Film |
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Best
Foreign Language Film |
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- Evil Sweden
- The Twilight
Samurai
Japan
- Twin Sisters The Netherlands
- Zelary Czech Republic
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Who Will Win:
Finding
Nemo |
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Who Will Win:
The
Barbarian Invasions, Canada |
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Why: Love to see Triplets pull an
upset, but Nemo's box office clout is simply too strong. |
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Why: The best known and most widely
acclaimed of the lot. |
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Post-Oscar Reaction: |
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A new high watermark for Shaking
Through predictions! 16 out of 20 pegged correctly (80%!). The bar
has been raised impossibly high and we should get out of the game
altogether. Ironically, the 4 misses came in categories in which we
didn't predict our critic's personal fave (Lord
of the Rings) to win.
Random Observations:
- Certainly no one could have
predicted a clean sweep for Peter Jackson's fantasy epic. As the
evening wore on, it became apparent that the Academy was rewarding the
entire trilogy and not just its concluding chapter. Kudos to all
involved in making this landmark and highly entertaining trilogy.
- The Academy's tribute to the late
Katharine Hepburn was a welcome detour from the usual
self-congratulatory awards.
- Errol Morris' acceptance speech for
his documentary The Fog of War included a cleverly worded dig
at the current political climate in Washington (likening the morass of
the Vietnam conflict from forty years ago to going down the rabbit
hole of Alice in Wonderland fame and then lamenting we might be
doing the exact same thing all over again). Hopefully last year's
winner, Michael Moore, was taking notes on how to make your point
without being obnoxious.
- Jack Black and Will Ferrell's lyrics
to the "Get off the damn stage" orchestra music for recipients who
drone on too long was the highlight of the evening.
- Billy Crystal is no Bob Hope, but
his energetic mugging and class-clown antics kept the proceedings from
feeling staid and stuffy. The ceremony ran over three hours, but
fortunately it didn't feel like it.
- Next year: 90%? We can always dream.
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