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The 2nd Annual Shaking Through Grover Awards
Other Grover Awards:
2006
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2005
| 2004 |
2003 | 2002
Read
our post-Oscar reaction to the evening's
banalities.
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Posted: March 4,
2003
By
Laurence Station
Last year's Oscar race provided
a few surprises (Halle Berry for Best Actress, for instance), but still
for the most part played it regrettably safe (the incredibly lame
A
Beautiful Mind winning everything in sight). This year's ceremony
should be even more predictable. The bad news is that we'll likely
suffer through a by-the-numbers schmooze-fest of insiders and
ass-kissing gladhanders. On the plus side, however, our predictions for
this year look to greatly improve on last year's 60% mark.
This year's Grover Awards, Shaking Through's more sensible take on
the grouchy Oscars, is more spread out than last year (Two Towers
was good, but not an instant classic on the order of Grover favorite
Fellowship).
Those stuffy Oscars may remain stridently mired in a most-hype-wins
funk, but we here at Shaking Through choose to make some more daring
choices. And like last year, we'll be on hand to sort the dead from the
living after the smoke clears on Oscar night.
Listed below are the Oscar nominees, with our favored pick (who
should win) in bold text alongside the accompanying image. The
actual Oscar prediction (who will win) follows. Official winners
highlighted in red. |
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Best Picture |
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Best
Director |
-
 Gangs Of New York
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-
- ▪
Chicago
- ▪
The Hours
- ▪
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two
Towers
- ▪
The Pianist
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-
 Martin Scorsese, Gangs Of New York
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- ▪ Rob Marshall,
Chicago
- ▪ Stephen Daldry,
The Hours
- ▪ Roman Polanski,
The Pianist
- ▪ Pedro Almodóvar,
Talk To Her
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Who Will Win:
Chicago |
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Who Will Win: Rob Marshall,
Chicago |
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Why: Oscar's saving Rings'
award for next year's final installment. Gangs is too critically
divisive, while The Hours is too literary (insane, but that's
shallow Oscar logic). And The Pianist is far too depressing --
though if there's an upset, Pianist will be it. Chicago is
bright and well-staged; plus, last year's far superior Moulin Rouge
set the table for a musical to finally nab the Big One after several
decades' worth of snubs. |
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Why: Best Picture and Best Director
almost always go hand-in-hand. Scorsese will have to console himself
with a Lifetime Achievement Award a few years hence. |
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Best
Actor |
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Best
Actress |
-
 Jack Nicholson,
About Schmidt
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-
- ▪ Adrien Brody,
The Pianist
- ▪ Nicolas Cage,
Adaptation
- ▪ Michael Caine,
The Quiet American
- ▪ Daniel Day-Lewis,
Gangs of
New York
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-
 Nicole Kidman,
The Hours
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-
- ▪ Salma Hayek,
Frida
- ▪ Diane Lane
Unfaithful
- ▪ Julianne Moore,
Far From Heaven
- ▪ Renee Zellweger,
Chicago
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Who Will Win: Jack Nicholson,
About Schmidt |
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Who Will Win: Nicole Kidman,
The Hours |
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Why: He's got the best seat in the
house, making for a short walk to the podium. Jack owns this category.
Day-Lewis in an upset? Don't count on it. |
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Why: Kidman was the best part of a
very average movie. She's earned it. Julianne Moore could pull an upset,
however. But if they give it to the utterly undeserving Diane Lane,
we'll be flabbergasted. |
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Best
Supporting Actor |
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Best
Supporting Actress |
-
 Chris Cooper,
Adaptation
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-
- ▪ Ed Harris,
The Hours
- ▪ Paul Newman,
Road to Perdition
- ▪ John C. Reilly,
Chicago
- ▪ Christopher Walken,
Catch Me if
You Can
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-
 Meryl Streep,
Adaptation
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-
- ▪ Kathy Bates,
About Schmidt
- ▪ Julianne Moore,
The Hours
- ▪ Queen Latifah,
Chicago
- ▪ Catherine Zeta-Jones,
Chicago
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Who Will Win: Chris Cooper,
Adaptation |
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Who Will Win: Meryl Streep,
Adaptation |
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Why: John C. Reilly would be an
acceptable upset, but Cooper's so good it would be surprising to see
anyone else take this one. |
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Why: Her best performance in years
deserves to be honored. And the competition is a bit weak. |
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Best
Screenplay (Original) |
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Best
Screenplay (Adaptation) |
-
 Todd Haynes,
Far From Heaven
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-
- ▪ Jay Cocks, Steve Zaillian, Ken
Lonergan,
Gangs of New York
- ▪ Nia Vardalos,
My Big Fat Greek
Wedding
- ▪ Pedro
Almodóvar,
Talk to Her
- ▪ Alfonso & Carlos Cuaron,
Y Tu Mama Tambien
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-
 Charlie Kaufman, Donald Kaufman,
Adaptation
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- ▪ Peter Hedges and Chris Weitz,
About a Boy
- ▪ Bill Condon,
Chicago
- ▪ David Hare,
The Hours
- ▪ Ronald Harwood,
The Pianist
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Who Will Win: Nia Vardalos,
My Big Fat Greek
Wedding |
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Who Will Win: Charlie Kaufman, Donald Kaufman,
Adaptation |
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Why: Oscar loves an underdog. Enjoy
it, Nia, before the TV series is cancelled and William Shatner's
mentioning your name on a VH1 Where Are They Now Sleeper Movie Hits
retrospective. |
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Why: Fellow screenwriters should
relish the chance to give the award to a film the focuses on the craft
of screenwriting -- albeit in a very eccentric manner. Playwright David Hare might
push Kaufman, but the gold should be his for the taking. |
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Cinematography |
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Film
Editing |
-
Michael Ballhaus,
Gangs Of New
York
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- ▪ Dion Beebe,
Chicago
- ▪ Edward Lachman,
Far From Heaven
- ▪ Pawel Edelman,
The Pianist
- ▪ Conrad L. Hall,
Road To Perdition
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Thelma Schoonmaker,
Gangs Of New York
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- ▪ Martin Walsh,
Chicago
- ▪ Peter Boyle,
The Hours
- ▪ Michael Horton,
The Lord Of The
Rings: The Two Towers
- ▪ Hervé de Luze,
The Pianist
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Who Will Win: Michael Ballhaus,
Gangs Of New
York |
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Who Will Win: Michael Horton,
The Lord Of The
Rings: The Two Towers |
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Why: The epic-yet-intimate scope,
incredible fight sequences and inventive shot selections make this one
an obvious choice. |
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Why: Oscar voters may confuse
cutting back and forth between multiple storylines with great editing,
thus making Rings the clear frontrunner.
Hopefully, Thelma will nab it, but... |
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Visual
Effects |
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Art
Direction |
-
 The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
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- ▪
Spider-Man
- ▪
Star Wars Episode II: Attack Of
The Clones
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-
 Chicago
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- ▪
Frida
- ▪
Gangs Of New York
- ▪
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two
Towers
- ▪
Road To Perdition
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Who Will Win:
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers |
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Who Will Win: Chicago |
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Why: The other two have faded from
voters' minds. Knee-jerk reaction: Big fantasy epic gets technical
awards. |
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Why: This one's an even safer bet
than the near-lock best picture nod -- it looks even better than it
sounds. |
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Costume Design |
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Makeup |
-
Chicago
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- ▪
Frida
- ▪
Gangs Of New York
- ▪
The Hours
- ▪
The Pianist
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-
 Frida
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- ▪
The Time Machine
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Who Will Win: Chicago |
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Who Will Win: Frida |
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Why: The period dress looks great. Gangs may surprise
here, but Chicago's overall momentum should see it through. |
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Why: A crapshoot. With choices like
these, this category's finding it harder and harder to justify its
existence. |
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Sound |
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Sound
Editing |
-
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
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- ▪ Chicago
- ▪
Gangs Of New York
- ▪
Road To Perdition
- ▪
Spider-Man
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-
 Minority Report
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-
- ▪
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two
Towers
- ▪
Road To Perdition
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Who Will Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers |
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Who Will Win:
Minority Report |
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Why: Cool battle noises win out
over spinning car tires, web-slinging zings and fancy footwork. |
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Why: This overlooked film has to
win something. |
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Original Song |
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Original Score |
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"I Move On," Music by John Kander; Lyric by Fred Ebb (Chicago)
- ▪ "Lose Yourself," Eminem (8
Mile)
- ▪ "Burn it Blue," Music by Elliot
Goldenthal; Lyric by Julie Taymor (Frida)
- ▪ "Hands that Built America," U2
(Gangs Of New York)
- ▪ "Father and Daughter," Paul Simon
(The Wild Thornberrys Movie)
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Far From Heaven,
Elmer Bernstein
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- ▪
Catch Me If You Can, John Williams
- ▪
Frida, Elliot Goldenthal
- ▪
The Hours, Philip Glass
- ▪
Road To Perdition, Thomas Newman
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Who Will Win: "I Move On," Music by John Kander; Lyric by Fred Ebb (Chicago) |
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Who Will Win:
Far From Heaven, Elmer Bernstein |
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Why: Who else gets it? Eminem? U2,
maybe, but being a rock band hurts the band's chances. "I Move On" is
theatrical, brassy and snappy. |
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Why: Bernstein is a beloved figure
in Tinseltown and his score was an integral part of the film's emotional
punch. Incredibly, this may be the
only award Far From Heaven wins all night. |
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Best
Animated Feature Film |
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Best
Foreign Language Film |
-
 Spirited Away
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- ▪ Ice Age
- ▪ Lilo & Stitch
- ▪ Spirit: Stallion Of The
Cimarron
- ▪ Treasure Planet
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-
 Hero (China)
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- ▪ El Crimen Del Padre Amaro (Mexico)
- ▪ The Man Without A Past (Finland)
- ▪ Nowhere In Africa (Germany)
- ▪ Zus & Zo
(The Netherlands)
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Who Will Win: Spirited Away |
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Who Will Win: Nowhere In Africa
(Germany) |
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Why: It's impossible to fathom any
other film beating this masterpiece. If wrong, we'll gladly take the hit
on prediction percentages; we stand by this one. |
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Why: The best film in the
group (despite our personal preference for Zhang Yimou's work), plus Talk to Her, inexplicably, wasn't even submitted as
the official film from Spain. Go figure. |
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Post-Oscar Reaction: |
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Okay, maybe it was a bit presumptuous of
us to figure the Oscars would be predictable, as evidenced by our less
than stellar 9-11 performance -- a woeful 45%. But snatching victory
from the jaws of defeat, there were some bright spots in which we
found a measure or two of solace.
Things that made us happy, even though
they hurt our prediction average:
- Adrien Brody's Best Actor win for
The Pianist. Let's face it: He was the movie. And his genuinely
heartfelt acceptance speech was a high point, as well.
- Pedro Almodóvar's nod for the
Talk to Her screenplay. Sorry, Nia Vardalos. On the bright side,
perhaps William Shatner won't be mentioning your name in a VH-1 "Where
Are They Now" special anytime soon.
- Perhaps if Roman Polanski knew he
was going to nab Best Director, he might have thrown caution to the
wind and actually made an appearance. The feds might even have waited
for him to finish his acceptance speech before slapping on the cuffs.
Other observations:
- Peter O'Toole: A well-deserved
reward for a great, great actor.
- Eminem: Will winning the Best Song
Oscar prove the final nail in his street-cred coffin?
- Spirited Away: At least the voters
saved face (and our pitiful prediction average) here.
- Note to Steve Martin: Get better
joke writers next time.
- Note to Michael Moore: We would have
been surprised if you hadn't turned your golden moment into an
obnoxious right-wing baiter's soap box.
- Note to Martin Scorsese: If the
Academy offers you a "Lifetime Achievement" Oscar one day, turn them
down.
- Note to self: Find a better old
gypsy woman to help you with these predictions. That, or just flip a
coin. At least the odds would be even.
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